Six major lenders repriced their mortgage ranges inside a single week. The RICS UK Residential Market Survey for June, published today, shows the housing market downturn may be beginning to ease. And SONIA swap rates have fallen below 4% for the first time since early spring. For Norfolk sellers and buyers, this is the week the data started telling a different story.
Barclays, Nationwide, Lloyds, Santander, Virgin Money and Coventry Building Society all announced rate reductions in the past seven days. The scale of some cuts was striking. Barclays reduced its Green Home two-year fixed rate at 90% LTV by 66 basis points, from 5.35% to 4.69%. Its purchase-only two-year fix at 85% LTV fell by 62 basis points to 4.73%. Nationwide cut its fixed products by 0.19 percentage points and its trackers by 0.12 points.
As one industry commentator put it: “Nobody wants to be left looking expensive going into the second half of the year.”
The average two-year fixed rate now sits at 5.52%, according to Moneyfacts, down from 5.54% a week earlier. The average five-year fixed rate also fell to 5.52%. For borrowers with larger deposits, the picture is considerably better. The best available two-year fix is around 4.30%, and the best five-year fix sits at 4.33% from Barclays at 60% LTV.
The driver behind these cuts is the swap market. One-to-five-year SONIA swaps are now sitting below 4%, giving lenders room to compete. If swaps hold at these levels, further reductions are likely in the weeks ahead.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors published its June UK Residential Market Survey this morning, and the message is cautiously positive. Several key indicators moved in a less negative direction for the second consecutive month.
New buyer enquiries improved to -29%, up from -34% in each of the previous two months, marking the least negative reading since February. Agreed sales rose to -32% from -35%. Near-term sales expectations recovered to -16%, up sharply from a March low of -34%.
Looking twelve months ahead, respondents now expect sales volumes to remain broadly flat (+1%), while +8% expect prices to rise, up from +6% previously. These are small numbers, but the direction of travel matters more than the magnitude right now.
There is one note of caution. New instructions to sell fell to -23%, the weakest reading in over a year. Fewer homes coming to market could constrain activity even as demand begins to recover.
RICS head of market research Tarrant Parsons said: “June’s survey results offer some cautious encouragement that the worst of the slowdown in market activity may be beginning to pass. That said, any nascent improvement remains fragile.”
The Lloyds House Price Index (formerly Halifax) showed UK house prices rose 0.2% in June, the first monthly increase since February. The average property now costs £299,330, with annual growth edging up to 0.6% from 0.5% in May.
The regional picture continues to split in two. Northern Ireland recorded the strongest annual growth at 7.4%, Scotland followed at 3.9%, and the North East rose 2.8%. The South East fell 2.0% and London dropped 1.1%. East of England, where Norfolk sits, is tracking broadly in line with the national average.
This north-south divide is now the defining feature of the current market. Affordability pressures have snapped hardest in the places where prices ran furthest ahead of incomes during the pandemic years.
Across the 324 local markets we monitor in Norfolk and Suffolk, conditions remain firmly buyer-led but the detail reveals a more nuanced picture. The average SSTC rate sits at 20%, with 256 locations (79%) currently favouring buyers, 53 balanced and just 15 favouring sellers.
The strongest performing locations continue to reward sellers who price accurately. Kirstead has joined the top tier with a 50% SSTC rate, alongside Alburgh at 58% and Drayton at 55%. These are locations where well-priced homes are attracting offers quickly and sellers retain negotiating strength.
Speed of sale tells its own story. Horsham St Faith is averaging just 38 days on market, while Flordon sits at 43 days. Both are comfortably inside the timeframe most sellers would consider a success in the current market.
At the other end of the spectrum, Hemsby and Salthouse show average days on market exceeding 1,000. These are areas where pricing expectations have not yet adjusted to buyer reality, and properties that entered the market at the wrong price are sitting without interest.
The rate-cutting wave is positive news. Lower mortgage costs bring more buyers into the market, and the RICS data suggests that trend is already beginning. But new listing supply is falling, which could work in sellers’ favour if demand continues to improve.
The gap between realistic and aspirational pricing remains the single biggest factor determining whether a home sells. In locations like Kirstead and Horsham St Faith, accurately priced homes are selling in weeks. In areas where sellers are holding out for pandemic-era prices, properties are sitting for years. The message from the data is clear: price to the market you are in today, not the one you remember from 2022.
This is still a strong buyer’s market across most of Norfolk and Suffolk, with genuine choice and negotiating room. But there are early signs that conditions may begin to shift. Rate cuts are bringing hesitant buyers back into the market, and as one broker noted, clients who had paused their search months ago are “suddenly making offers.”
For buyers who are ready, acting now while competition remains low makes strategic sense. Waiting for rates to fall further risks entering a more competitive market. The best opportunities exist when you have leverage, and right now, in most Norfolk locations, buyers have it.
The Rightmove July House Price Index is expected around 14 July and will show whether asking prices are reflecting this week’s shifts. The Bank of England decision on 30 July will be the next major event, accompanied by the full Monetary Policy Report. Markets are not expecting a rate change at the July meeting, but the tone of the report will shape expectations for August and beyond.
With SONIA swaps below 4% and lenders competing aggressively, the trajectory for mortgage rates looks more favourable than at any point since the Middle East conflict began last year. The question is whether that translates into sustained buyer activity or simply a brief summer flicker. We will be tracking the data closely.
